The Paradox of Himalayan Climbing Expeditions

While larger teams achieve higher success rates, individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams. Analysis of climbing patterns, team dynamics, and safety implications from 1925 to 2024

TidyTuesday

2025

Exploring a compelling paradox in Himalayan mountaineering: while larger teams achieve significantly higher summit success rates (up to 91%), individual climbers actually face greater risks when participating in smaller teams. Through four interconnected visualizations, this analysis reveals historical climbing patterns (1925-2024), geographical distributions across mountain ranges, and the complex relationship between team size and expedition outcomes. The data challenges common assumptions about safety in numbers, showing that although larger teams are more successful, individual safety might be compromised in smaller groups despite their continued appeal to climbers.

Author

Steven Ponce

Published

January 19, 2025

Modified

January 21, 2025

Figure 1: Four-panel visualization of Himalayan climbing expeditions (1925–2024). The first panel shows the number of first ascents by year, highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second panel compares the number of climbed vs. unclimbed peaks across various mountain ranges. The third panel presents a paradox: while larger teams show higher accident rates per person, smaller teams face even greater risks. The fourth panel reveals that larger teams achieve higher success rates, with teams of 15+ members reaching 91% success, compared to 59% for teams of 1-5 members.

Update (January 21, 2025)

This post has been updated based on valuable feedback from The Data Digest. The changes include:

Normalizing the accident rates to be per-person rather than per-expedition in the risk analysis plot
Revising the visualization’s subtitle to accurately reflect that individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams
Updating the annotation in the risk analysis plot to better explain the relationship between team size and individual risk
Modifying the color scheme and axis scales in the risk analysis plot to better represent the per-person accident rates

Steps to Create this Graphic

1. Load Packages & Setup

Show code

## 1. LOAD PACKAGES & SETUP ----
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
if (!require("pacman")) install.packages("pacman")
pacman::p_load(
    tidyverse,      # Easily Install and Load the 'Tidyverse'
    ggtext,         # Improved Text Rendering Support for 'ggplot2'
    showtext,       # Using Fonts More Easily in R Graphs
    janitor,        # Simple Tools for Examining and Cleaning Dirty Data
    skimr,          # Compact and Flexible Summaries of Data
    scales,         # Scale Functions for Visualization
    glue,           # Interpreted String Literals
    here,           # A Simpler Way to Find Your Files
    patchwork       # The Composer of Plots
)

})

# Source utility functions
suppressMessages(source(here::here("R/utils/fonts.R")))
source(here::here("R/utils/social_icons.R"))
source(here::here("R/utils/image_utils.R"))
source(here::here("R/themes/base_theme.R"))

2. Read in the Data

Show code

tt <- tidytuesdayR::tt_load(2025, week = 03) 

exped_tidy <- tt$exped_tidy |> clean_names()
peaks_tidy <- tt$peaks_tidy |> clean_names()

tidytuesdayR::readme(tt)
rm(tt)

3. Examine the Data

Show code

glimpse(exped_tidy)
skim(exped_tidy)

glimpse(peaks_tidy)
skim(peaks_tidy)

4. Tidy Data

Show code

# 1. First Ascent Timeline
first_ascents_data <- peaks_tidy |>
  filter(!is.na(pyear)) |>
  group_by(pyear) |>
  summarise(
    first_ascents = n(),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) |>
  # Add flag for special years
  mutate(
    highlight = case_when(
      pyear == 1953 ~ "Everest",
      pyear >= 2020 & pyear <= 2021 ~ "Covid",
      TRUE ~ "Regular"
    )
  )


# 2. Success Rate by Team Size Category
team_success_data <- exped_tidy |>
  filter(totmembers > 0) |>
  mutate(
    team_size = cut(
      totmembers,
      breaks = c(0, 5, 10, 15, Inf),
      labels = c("1-5", "6-10", "11-15", "15+"),
      right = TRUE
    )
  ) |>
  group_by(team_size) |>
  summarise(
    total = n(),
    successes = sum(success1 == TRUE, na.rm = TRUE),
    success_rate = successes / total
  ) |>
  # Create text for labels
  mutate(
    label_position = success_rate,
    success_pct = paste0(round(success_rate * 100), "%"),
    total_label = paste0("n = ", total)
  )

# 3. Distribution of Climbing Status by Mountain Range
climbing_status_data <- peaks_tidy |>
  # Count peaks by range and status
  group_by(himal_factor, pstatus_factor) |>
  summarise(count = n(), .groups = "drop") |>
  # Calculate total peaks per range for sorting
  group_by(himal_factor) |>
  mutate(
    total_peaks = sum(count),
    pct = count / total_peaks,
    # Create labels with count and percentage for larger values
    label = if_else(count >= 3,
      as.character(count),
      ""
    ), # Only show labels for count >= 3
    # Create total peaks label with consistent format
    total_label = paste0(total_peaks, " peaks")
  ) |>
  ungroup() |>
  # Sort by total peaks
  mutate(
    himal_factor = fct_reorder(himal_factor, total_peaks)
  )

# 4. Accidents vs. Expedition Size (updated)
accident_data <- exped_tidy |>
    filter(totmembers > 0, totmembers <= 30) |>
    group_by(totmembers) |>
    summarise(
        total_expeditions = n(), 
        total_people = n() * totmembers,                     # updated
        total_deaths = sum(mdeaths + hdeaths, na.rm = TRUE),
        accidents_per_person = total_deaths / total_people,
        .groups = "drop"
    ) |>
    # Filter for more reliable statistics
    filter(total_expeditions >= 5)

5. Visualization Parameters

Show code

### |-  plot aesthetics ----
# Get base colors with custom palette
colors <- get_theme_colors(palette = c(
    primary   = "#2E86C1",    # Main blue for time series/success
    secondary = "#E67E22",    # Orange for contrasts
    success   = "#27AE60",    # Green for success metrics
    risk      = "#E74C3C",    # Red for risks/accidents
    neutral   = "gray90"      # Background elements
    ))

### |-  titles and caption ----
title_text <- str_glue("The Paradox of Himalayan Climbing Expeditions")

subtitle_text <- str_glue("While larger teams achieve higher success rates, individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams.\n
                         Analysis of climbing patterns, team dynamics, and safety implications from 1925 to 2024")

# Create caption
caption_text <- create_social_caption(
    tt_year = 2025,
    tt_week = 03,
    source_text = "The Himalayan Database"
)

### |-  fonts ----
setup_fonts()
fonts <- get_font_families()

### |-  plot theme ----

# Start with base theme
base_theme <- create_base_theme(colors)

# Add weekly-specific theme elements
weekly_theme <- extend_weekly_theme(
    base_theme,
    theme(
        # Text styling 
        plot.title = element_text(face = "bold", size = rel(1.14), margin = margin(b = 10)),
        plot.subtitle = element_text(color = colors$text, size = rel(0.78), margin = margin(b = 20)),
        
        # Axis formatting
        axis.title = element_text(color = colors$text, size = 10),
        axis.text = element_text(color = colors$text, size = 9),
        
        # Legend formatting 
        legend.position = "top",
        legend.title = element_text(size = 10),
        legend.text = element_text(size = 9),
        legend.margin = margin(b = 10),
        
        # Grid customization
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
        
        # Plot margins 
        plot.margin = margin(t = 20, r = 20, b = 20, l = 20),
        
        # Legend formatting 
        legend.box.margin = margin(b = 15),
        legend.spacing = unit(0.2, "cm"),
        legend.box.spacing = unit(0.2, "cm"),
        legend.key.size = unit(0.8, "lines")
    )
)

# Set theme
theme_set(weekly_theme)

6. Plot

Show code

### |-  Plot ----

# 1. First Ascent Timeline
p1 <- ggplot(first_ascents_data,
             aes(x = pyear, y = first_ascents)) +
    # Geoms
    geom_hline(
        yintercept = seq(0, 14, 2), 
        color = colors$palette["neutral"], 
        linewidth = 0.3
    ) +
    geom_step(
        color = colors$palette["primary"],
        linewidth = 0.8
    ) +
    geom_smooth(
        aes(x = pyear, y = first_ascents),
        method = "loess",
        color = alpha(colors$palette["primary"], 0.2),
        se = FALSE,
        linewidth = 0.8,
        span = 0.3
    ) +
    geom_point(
        aes(color = highlight),
        size = 2,
        alpha = 0.7
    ) +
    # Scales
    scale_x_continuous(
        breaks = c(1920, 1940, 1960, 1980, 2000, 2020),
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02))
    ) +
    scale_y_continuous(
        breaks = seq(0, 14, 2),
        limits = c(0, 14),
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0, 0.1))
    ) +
    scale_color_manual(
        values = c(
            "Everest" = colors$palette["secondary"],
            "Covid" = colors$palette["risk"],
            "Regular" = colors$palette["primary"]
        ),
        guide = "none"
    ) +
    # Annotations
    annotate(
        "text",
        x = 1953,
        y = 14,
        label = "First Everest\nAscent",
        size = 3,
        color = colors$palette["secondary"],
        hjust = 0.5
    ) +
    annotate(
        "segment",
        x = 1953,
        xend = 1953,
        y = 9,
        yend = 13,
        color = colors$palette["secondary"],
        alpha = 0.5,
        linewidth = 0.5
    ) +
    annotate(
        "text",
        x = 2020,
        y = 1,
        label = "COVID-19\nPandemic",
        size = 3,
        color = colors$palette["risk"],
        hjust = 0.5
    ) +
    # Labs
    labs(
        title = "The Dawn of Himalayan Climbing",
        subtitle = "Number of first ascents recorded each year (1925-2024)",
        x = "Year",
        y = "Number of First Ascents"
    ) +
    # Theme
    theme(
        panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.x = element_line(color = "gray95")
    )

# 2. Success Rate by Team Size Category
p2 <- ggplot(team_success_data) +
    # Geoms
    geom_col(
        aes(x = team_size, y = success_rate),
        fill = colors$palette["success"],
        width = 0.7
    ) +
    geom_text(
        aes(x = team_size, y = success_rate, label = success_pct),
        nudge_y = -0.03,
        color = "white",
        fontface = "bold",
        size = 3.5
    ) +
    geom_text(
        aes(x = team_size, y = 0, label = total_label),
        nudge_y = 0.05,
        color = "white",
        size = 3
    ) +
    geom_hline(
        yintercept = 0.5,
        linetype = "dashed",
        color = "gray70",
        linewidth = 0.3
    ) +
    # Scales
    scale_y_continuous(
        labels = percent,
        limits = c(0, 1),
        breaks = seq(0, 1, 0.2),
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02))
    ) +
    # Labs
    labs(
        title = "Larger Teams, Higher Success Rates",
        subtitle = "Success rate and total number of expeditions by team size",
        x = "Team Size (Number of Members)",
        y = "Success Rate"
    ) +                                    
    # Theme 
    theme(
        panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "gray95")
    )

# 3. Distribution of Climbing Status by Mountain Range
p3 <- ggplot(climbing_status_data,
             aes(x = count, 
                 y = himal_factor,
                 fill = pstatus_factor)) +  
    # Geoms
    geom_col(
        position = "stack",
        width = 0.7
    ) +
    geom_text(
        aes(label = label),
        position = position_stack(vjust = 0.5),
        color = "white",
        size = 3,
        fontface = "bold"
    ) +
    geom_text(
        data = subset(climbing_status_data, !duplicated(himal_factor)),
        aes(x = -1, label = sprintf("%d peaks", total_peaks)),  # Simplified label
        hjust = 1,
        size = 3,
        color = "gray30"
    ) +
    # Scales
    scale_x_continuous(
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0.3, 0.05)),  # Increased left expansion
        breaks = seq(0, 80, 20)
    ) +
    scale_fill_manual(
        name = "Status",
        breaks = c("Unclimbed", "Climbed"),
        values = setNames(
            c(colors$palette["secondary"], colors$palette["primary"]),
            c("Unclimbed", "Climbed")
        )
    ) +
    # Labs
    labs(
        title = "Mountain Ranges: Conquests and Challenges",
        subtitle = "Number of climbed and unclimbed peaks in each mountain range",
        x = "Number of Peaks",
        y = NULL
    ) +
    # Theme 
    theme(
        axis.text.y = element_text(size = 8),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.x = element_line(color = "gray95")
    )

# 4. Accidents vs. Expedition Size 
# Update p4 plot to use accidents_per_person
p4 <- ggplot(accident_data) +
    # Geoms
    geom_hline(
        yintercept = seq(0, 0.01, 0.002),  
        color = "gray95",
        linewidth = 0.3
    ) +
    geom_line(
        aes(x = totmembers, y = accidents_per_person),  # Changed to per-person metric
        color = colors$palette["risk"],
        linewidth = 0.5,
        alpha = 0.6
    ) +
    geom_point(
        aes(x = totmembers, y = accidents_per_person,  # Changed to per-person metric
            size = total_expeditions),
        color = colors$palette["risk"],
        alpha = 0.7,
        stroke = 0
    ) +
    # Update label text to reflect per-person normalization
    geom_label(
        aes(x = 05, y = 0.035,                                                  # updated
            label = "After normalizing per person,\nsmaller teams show higher\nindividual risk rates than\nlarger teams"),
        size = 3,
        color = colors$text,
        #fill = alpha(colors$palette["primary"], 0.01),
        label.size = 0.25,
        label.padding = unit(0.5, "lines"),
        hjust = 0
    ) +
    # Scales
    scale_y_continuous(
        labels = percent_format(),
        limits = c(-0.001, 0.04),  
        breaks = seq(0, 0.04, 0.005),  
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0, 0.04))
    ) +
    scale_x_continuous(
        breaks = seq(0, 30, 5),
        expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02))
    ) +
    scale_size_continuous(
        range = c(2, 8),
        breaks = c(10, 25, 50, 100),
        labels = c("10", "25", "50", "100+"),
        guide = guide_legend(
            title.position = "top",
            override.aes = list(color = colors$palette["risk"], alpha = 0.7)
        )
    ) +
    # Labs
    labs(                                                                       # updated
        title = "Team Size and Individual Risk Patterns",
        subtitle = "Per-person accident rates show varying risks across different team sizes",
        x = "Team Size (Number of Members)",
        y = "Accidents per Person",
        size = "Number of Expeditions"
    ) +
    # Theme 
    theme(
        panel.grid.major = element_line(color = "gray95"),
        legend.key = element_blank()
    )

# Combine plots 
combined_plot <- (p1 | p3) / (p4 | p2) +  
    plot_layout(
        heights = c(1, 1),  
        widths = c(1, 1)    
    ) 

combined_plot <- combined_plot +
    # Add title, subtitle, and caption 
    plot_annotation(
        title = title_text,
        subtitle = subtitle_text,
        caption = caption_text,
        theme = theme(
            plot.title = element_text(
                size   = rel(2.6),
                family = fonts$title,
                face   = "bold",
                color  = colors$title,
                lineheight = 1.1,
                margin = margin(t = 5, b = 5)
            ),
            plot.subtitle = element_text(
                size   = rel(1.1),
                family = fonts$subtitle,
                color  = colors$subtitle,
                lineheight = 1.1,
                margin = margin(t = 5, b = 15)
            ),
            plot.caption = element_markdown(
                size   = rel(0.7),
                family = fonts$caption,
                color  = colors$caption,
                hjust  = 0.5,
                margin = margin(t = 10)
            )
        )
    ) & 
    # Add spacing between plots
    theme(panel.spacing = unit(2, "cm"))

7. Save

Show code

### |-  plot image ----  

save_plot_patchwork(combined_plot, type = "tidytuesday", 
          year = 2025, week = 03, width = 14, height = 14)

8. Session Info

Expand for Session Info

R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt)
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64
Running under: Windows 11 x64 (build 22631)

Matrix products: default


locale:
[1] LC_COLLATE=English_United States.utf8 
[2] LC_CTYPE=English_United States.utf8   
[3] LC_MONETARY=English_United States.utf8
[4] LC_NUMERIC=C                          
[5] LC_TIME=English_United States.utf8    

time zone: America/New_York
tzcode source: internal

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices datasets  utils     methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] patchwork_1.3.0 here_1.0.1      glue_1.8.0      scales_1.3.0   
 [5] skimr_2.1.5     janitor_2.2.0   showtext_0.9-7  showtextdb_3.0 
 [9] sysfonts_0.8.9  ggtext_0.1.2    lubridate_1.9.3 forcats_1.0.0  
[13] stringr_1.5.1   dplyr_1.1.4     purrr_1.0.2     readr_2.1.5    
[17] tidyr_1.3.1     tibble_3.2.1    ggplot2_3.5.1   tidyverse_2.0.0
[21] pacman_0.5.1   

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] gtable_0.3.6       xfun_0.49          httr2_1.0.6        htmlwidgets_1.6.4 
 [5] gh_1.4.1           lattice_0.22-6     tzdb_0.4.0         yulab.utils_0.1.8 
 [9] vctrs_0.6.5        tools_4.4.0        generics_0.1.3     parallel_4.4.0    
[13] curl_6.0.0         fansi_1.0.6        pkgconfig_2.0.3    Matrix_1.7-0      
[17] ggplotify_0.1.2    lifecycle_1.0.4    compiler_4.4.0     farver_2.1.2      
[21] munsell_0.5.1      repr_1.1.7         codetools_0.2-20   snakecase_0.11.1  
[25] htmltools_0.5.8.1  yaml_2.3.10        crayon_1.5.3       pillar_1.9.0      
[29] magick_2.8.5       nlme_3.1-164       commonmark_1.9.2   tidyselect_1.2.1  
[33] digest_0.6.37      stringi_1.8.4      splines_4.4.0      rprojroot_2.0.4   
[37] fastmap_1.2.0      grid_4.4.0         colorspace_2.1-1   cli_3.6.3         
[41] magrittr_2.0.3     base64enc_0.1-3    utf8_1.2.4         withr_3.0.2       
[45] rappdirs_0.3.3     bit64_4.5.2        timechange_0.3.0   rmarkdown_2.29    
[49] tidytuesdayR_1.1.2 gitcreds_0.1.2     bit_4.5.0          hms_1.1.3         
[53] evaluate_1.0.1     knitr_1.49         markdown_1.13      mgcv_1.9-1        
[57] gridGraphics_0.5-1 rlang_1.1.4        gridtext_0.1.5     Rcpp_1.0.13-1     
[61] xml2_1.3.6         renv_1.0.3         vroom_1.6.5        rstudioapi_0.17.1 
[65] jsonlite_1.8.9     R6_2.5.1           fs_1.6.5

9. GitHub Repository

Expand for GitHub Repo

The complete code for this analysis is available in tt_2025_03.qmd.

For the full repository, click here.

10. References

Expand for References

Data Sources:
- TidyTuesday 2025 Week 03: The History of Himalayan Mountaineering Expeditions

--- title: "The Paradox of Himalayan Climbing Expeditions" subtitle: "While larger teams achieve higher success rates, individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams. Analysis of climbing patterns, team dynamics, and safety implications from 1925 to 2024" description: "Exploring a compelling paradox in Himalayan mountaineering: while larger teams achieve significantly higher summit success rates (up to 91%), individual climbers actually face greater risks when participating in smaller teams. Through four interconnected visualizations, this analysis reveals historical climbing patterns (1925-2024), geographical distributions across mountain ranges, and the complex relationship between team size and expedition outcomes. The data challenges common assumptions about safety in numbers, showing that although larger teams are more successful, individual safety might be compromised in smaller groups despite their continued appeal to climbers." author: "Steven Ponce" date: "2025-01-19" date-modified: "2025-01-21" categories: ["TidyTuesday", "2025"] tags: [ "ggplot2", "patchwork", "mountaineering", "Himalayas", "time-series", "data-storytelling", "exploratory-analysis", "risk-analysis", "success-rates", "pattern-analysis", "geospatial-data", "historical-data", "tidyverse", "data-wrangling", "visualization-design" ] image: "thumbnails/tt_2025_03.png" format: html: toc: true toc-depth: 5 code-link: true code-fold: true code-tools: true code-summary: "Show code" editor_options: chunk_output_type: inline execute: freeze: true cache: true error: false message: false warning: false eval: true # filters: # - social-share # share: # permalink: "https://stevenponce.netlify.app/data_visualizations/TidyTuesday/2025/tt_2025_03.html" # description: "Discover the paradox of Himalayan climbing: while larger teams achieve higher success rates (up to 91%), individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams. Analysis of 100 years of expedition data reveals fascinating patterns in mountaineering safety and success." # # twitter: true # linkedin: true # email: true # facebook: false # reddit: false # stumble: false # tumblr: false # mastodon: true # bsky: true --- ![Four-panel visualization of Himalayan climbing expeditions (1925–2024). The first panel shows the number of first ascents by year, highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second panel compares the number of climbed vs. unclimbed peaks across various mountain ranges. The third panel presents a paradox: while larger teams show higher accident rates per person, smaller teams face even greater risks. The fourth panel reveals that larger teams achieve higher success rates, with teams of 15+ members reaching 91% success, compared to 59% for teams of 1-5 members.](tt_2025_03.png){#fig-1} ::: {.callout-note} ## Update (January 21, 2025) This post has been updated based on valuable feedback from [The Data Digest](https://x.com/DigestData). The changes include: * Normalizing the accident rates to be per-person rather than per-expedition in the risk analysis plot * Revising the visualization's subtitle to accurately reflect that individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams * Updating the annotation in the risk analysis plot to better explain the relationship between team size and individual risk * Modifying the color scheme and axis scales in the risk analysis plot to better represent the per-person accident rates ::: ### <mark> **Steps to Create this Graphic** </mark> #### 1. Load Packages & Setup ```{r} #| label: load #| warning: false #| message: false #| results: "hide" ## 1. LOAD PACKAGES & SETUP ---- suppressPackageStartupMessages({ if (!require("pacman")) install.packages("pacman") pacman::p_load( tidyverse, # Easily Install and Load the 'Tidyverse' ggtext, # Improved Text Rendering Support for 'ggplot2' showtext, # Using Fonts More Easily in R Graphs janitor, # Simple Tools for Examining and Cleaning Dirty Data skimr, # Compact and Flexible Summaries of Data scales, # Scale Functions for Visualization glue, # Interpreted String Literals here, # A Simpler Way to Find Your Files patchwork # The Composer of Plots ) }) # Source utility functions suppressMessages(source(here::here("R/utils/fonts.R"))) source(here::here("R/utils/social_icons.R")) source(here::here("R/utils/image_utils.R")) source(here::here("R/themes/base_theme.R")) ``` #### 2. Read in the Data ```{r} #| label: read #| include: true #| eval: true #| warning: false tt <- tidytuesdayR::tt_load(2025, week = 03) exped_tidy <- tt$exped_tidy |> clean_names() peaks_tidy <- tt$peaks_tidy |> clean_names() tidytuesdayR::readme(tt) rm(tt) ``` #### 3. Examine the Data ```{r} #| label: examine #| include: true #| eval: true #| results: 'hide' #| warning: false glimpse(exped_tidy) skim(exped_tidy) glimpse(peaks_tidy) skim(peaks_tidy) ``` #### 4. Tidy Data ```{r} #| label: tidy #| warning: false # 1. First Ascent Timeline first_ascents_data <- peaks_tidy |> filter(!is.na(pyear)) |> group_by(pyear) |> summarise( first_ascents = n(), .groups = "drop" ) |> # Add flag for special years mutate( highlight = case_when( pyear == 1953 ~ "Everest", pyear >= 2020 & pyear <= 2021 ~ "Covid", TRUE ~ "Regular" ) ) # 2. Success Rate by Team Size Category team_success_data <- exped_tidy |> filter(totmembers > 0) |> mutate( team_size = cut( totmembers, breaks = c(0, 5, 10, 15, Inf), labels = c("1-5", "6-10", "11-15", "15+"), right = TRUE ) ) |> group_by(team_size) |> summarise( total = n(), successes = sum(success1 == TRUE, na.rm = TRUE), success_rate = successes / total ) |> # Create text for labels mutate( label_position = success_rate, success_pct = paste0(round(success_rate * 100), "%"), total_label = paste0("n = ", total) ) # 3. Distribution of Climbing Status by Mountain Range climbing_status_data <- peaks_tidy |> # Count peaks by range and status group_by(himal_factor, pstatus_factor) |> summarise(count = n(), .groups = "drop") |> # Calculate total peaks per range for sorting group_by(himal_factor) |> mutate( total_peaks = sum(count), pct = count / total_peaks, # Create labels with count and percentage for larger values label = if_else(count >= 3, as.character(count), "" ), # Only show labels for count >= 3 # Create total peaks label with consistent format total_label = paste0(total_peaks, " peaks") ) |> ungroup() |> # Sort by total peaks mutate( himal_factor = fct_reorder(himal_factor, total_peaks) ) # 4. Accidents vs. Expedition Size (updated) accident_data <- exped_tidy |> filter(totmembers > 0, totmembers <= 30) |> group_by(totmembers) |> summarise( total_expeditions = n(), total_people = n() * totmembers, # updated total_deaths = sum(mdeaths + hdeaths, na.rm = TRUE), accidents_per_person = total_deaths / total_people, .groups = "drop" ) |> # Filter for more reliable statistics filter(total_expeditions >= 5) ``` #### 5. Visualization Parameters ```{r} #| label: params #| include: true #| warning: false ### |- plot aesthetics ---- # Get base colors with custom palette colors <- get_theme_colors(palette = c( primary = "#2E86C1", # Main blue for time series/success secondary = "#E67E22", # Orange for contrasts success = "#27AE60", # Green for success metrics risk = "#E74C3C", # Red for risks/accidents neutral = "gray90" # Background elements )) ### |- titles and caption ---- title_text <- str_glue("The Paradox of Himalayan Climbing Expeditions") subtitle_text <- str_glue("While larger teams achieve higher success rates, individual climbers face greater risks in smaller teams.\n Analysis of climbing patterns, team dynamics, and safety implications from 1925 to 2024") # Create caption caption_text <- create_social_caption( tt_year = 2025, tt_week = 03, source_text = "The Himalayan Database" ) ### |- fonts ---- setup_fonts() fonts <- get_font_families() ### |- plot theme ---- # Start with base theme base_theme <- create_base_theme(colors) # Add weekly-specific theme elements weekly_theme <- extend_weekly_theme( base_theme, theme( # Text styling plot.title = element_text(face = "bold", size = rel(1.14), margin = margin(b = 10)), plot.subtitle = element_text(color = colors$text, size = rel(0.78), margin = margin(b = 20)), # Axis formatting axis.title = element_text(color = colors$text, size = 10), axis.text = element_text(color = colors$text, size = 9), # Legend formatting legend.position = "top", legend.title = element_text(size = 10), legend.text = element_text(size = 9), legend.margin = margin(b = 10), # Grid customization panel.grid.minor = element_blank(), # Plot margins plot.margin = margin(t = 20, r = 20, b = 20, l = 20), # Legend formatting legend.box.margin = margin(b = 15), legend.spacing = unit(0.2, "cm"), legend.box.spacing = unit(0.2, "cm"), legend.key.size = unit(0.8, "lines") ) ) # Set theme theme_set(weekly_theme) ``` #### 6. Plot ```{r} #| label: plot #| warning: false ### |- Plot ---- # 1. First Ascent Timeline p1 <- ggplot(first_ascents_data, aes(x = pyear, y = first_ascents)) + # Geoms geom_hline( yintercept = seq(0, 14, 2), color = colors$palette["neutral"], linewidth = 0.3 ) + geom_step( color = colors$palette["primary"], linewidth = 0.8 ) + geom_smooth( aes(x = pyear, y = first_ascents), method = "loess", color = alpha(colors$palette["primary"], 0.2), se = FALSE, linewidth = 0.8, span = 0.3 ) + geom_point( aes(color = highlight), size = 2, alpha = 0.7 ) + # Scales scale_x_continuous( breaks = c(1920, 1940, 1960, 1980, 2000, 2020), expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02)) ) + scale_y_continuous( breaks = seq(0, 14, 2), limits = c(0, 14), expand = expansion(mult = c(0, 0.1)) ) + scale_color_manual( values = c( "Everest" = colors$palette["secondary"], "Covid" = colors$palette["risk"], "Regular" = colors$palette["primary"] ), guide = "none" ) + # Annotations annotate( "text", x = 1953, y = 14, label = "First Everest\nAscent", size = 3, color = colors$palette["secondary"], hjust = 0.5 ) + annotate( "segment", x = 1953, xend = 1953, y = 9, yend = 13, color = colors$palette["secondary"], alpha = 0.5, linewidth = 0.5 ) + annotate( "text", x = 2020, y = 1, label = "COVID-19\nPandemic", size = 3, color = colors$palette["risk"], hjust = 0.5 ) + # Labs labs( title = "The Dawn of Himalayan Climbing", subtitle = "Number of first ascents recorded each year (1925-2024)", x = "Year", y = "Number of First Ascents" ) + # Theme theme( panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(), panel.grid.major.x = element_line(color = "gray95") ) # 2. Success Rate by Team Size Category p2 <- ggplot(team_success_data) + # Geoms geom_col( aes(x = team_size, y = success_rate), fill = colors$palette["success"], width = 0.7 ) + geom_text( aes(x = team_size, y = success_rate, label = success_pct), nudge_y = -0.03, color = "white", fontface = "bold", size = 3.5 ) + geom_text( aes(x = team_size, y = 0, label = total_label), nudge_y = 0.05, color = "white", size = 3 ) + geom_hline( yintercept = 0.5, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray70", linewidth = 0.3 ) + # Scales scale_y_continuous( labels = percent, limits = c(0, 1), breaks = seq(0, 1, 0.2), expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02)) ) + # Labs labs( title = "Larger Teams, Higher Success Rates", subtitle = "Success rate and total number of expeditions by team size", x = "Team Size (Number of Members)", y = "Success Rate" ) + # Theme theme( panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(), panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "gray95") ) # 3. Distribution of Climbing Status by Mountain Range p3 <- ggplot(climbing_status_data, aes(x = count, y = himal_factor, fill = pstatus_factor)) + # Geoms geom_col( position = "stack", width = 0.7 ) + geom_text( aes(label = label), position = position_stack(vjust = 0.5), color = "white", size = 3, fontface = "bold" ) + geom_text( data = subset(climbing_status_data, !duplicated(himal_factor)), aes(x = -1, label = sprintf("%d peaks", total_peaks)), # Simplified label hjust = 1, size = 3, color = "gray30" ) + # Scales scale_x_continuous( expand = expansion(mult = c(0.3, 0.05)), # Increased left expansion breaks = seq(0, 80, 20) ) + scale_fill_manual( name = "Status", breaks = c("Unclimbed", "Climbed"), values = setNames( c(colors$palette["secondary"], colors$palette["primary"]), c("Unclimbed", "Climbed") ) ) + # Labs labs( title = "Mountain Ranges: Conquests and Challenges", subtitle = "Number of climbed and unclimbed peaks in each mountain range", x = "Number of Peaks", y = NULL ) + # Theme theme( axis.text.y = element_text(size = 8), panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(), panel.grid.major.x = element_line(color = "gray95") ) # 4. Accidents vs. Expedition Size # Update p4 plot to use accidents_per_person p4 <- ggplot(accident_data) + # Geoms geom_hline( yintercept = seq(0, 0.01, 0.002), color = "gray95", linewidth = 0.3 ) + geom_line( aes(x = totmembers, y = accidents_per_person), # Changed to per-person metric color = colors$palette["risk"], linewidth = 0.5, alpha = 0.6 ) + geom_point( aes(x = totmembers, y = accidents_per_person, # Changed to per-person metric size = total_expeditions), color = colors$palette["risk"], alpha = 0.7, stroke = 0 ) + # Update label text to reflect per-person normalization geom_label( aes(x = 05, y = 0.035, # updated label = "After normalizing per person,\nsmaller teams show higher\nindividual risk rates than\nlarger teams"), size = 3, color = colors$text, #fill = alpha(colors$palette["primary"], 0.01), label.size = 0.25, label.padding = unit(0.5, "lines"), hjust = 0 ) + # Scales scale_y_continuous( labels = percent_format(), limits = c(-0.001, 0.04), breaks = seq(0, 0.04, 0.005), expand = expansion(mult = c(0, 0.04)) ) + scale_x_continuous( breaks = seq(0, 30, 5), expand = expansion(mult = c(0.02, 0.02)) ) + scale_size_continuous( range = c(2, 8), breaks = c(10, 25, 50, 100), labels = c("10", "25", "50", "100+"), guide = guide_legend( title.position = "top", override.aes = list(color = colors$palette["risk"], alpha = 0.7) ) ) + # Labs labs( # updated title = "Team Size and Individual Risk Patterns", subtitle = "Per-person accident rates show varying risks across different team sizes", x = "Team Size (Number of Members)", y = "Accidents per Person", size = "Number of Expeditions" ) + # Theme theme( panel.grid.major = element_line(color = "gray95"), legend.key = element_blank() ) # Combine plots combined_plot <- (p1 | p3) / (p4 | p2) + plot_layout( heights = c(1, 1), widths = c(1, 1) ) combined_plot <- combined_plot + # Add title, subtitle, and caption plot_annotation( title = title_text, subtitle = subtitle_text, caption = caption_text, theme = theme( plot.title = element_text( size = rel(2.6), family = fonts$title, face = "bold", color = colors$title, lineheight = 1.1, margin = margin(t = 5, b = 5) ), plot.subtitle = element_text( size = rel(1.1), family = fonts$subtitle, color = colors$subtitle, lineheight = 1.1, margin = margin(t = 5, b = 15) ), plot.caption = element_markdown( size = rel(0.7), family = fonts$caption, color = colors$caption, hjust = 0.5, margin = margin(t = 10) ) ) ) & # Add spacing between plots theme(panel.spacing = unit(2, "cm")) ``` #### 7. Save ```{r} #| label: save #| warning: false ### |- plot image ---- save_plot_patchwork(combined_plot, type = "tidytuesday", year = 2025, week = 03, width = 14, height = 14) ``` #### 8. Session Info ::: {.callout-tip collapse="true"} ##### Expand for Session Info ```{r, echo = FALSE} #| eval: true #| warning: false sessionInfo() ``` ::: #### 9. GitHub Repository ::: {.callout-tip collapse="true"} ##### Expand for GitHub Repo The complete code for this analysis is available in [`tt_2025_03.qmd`](https://github.com/poncest/personal-website/blob/master/data_visualizations/TidyTuesday/2025/tt_2025_03.qmd). For the full repository, [click here](https://github.com/poncest/personal-website/). ::: #### 10. References ::: {.callout-tip collapse="true"} ##### Expand for References 1. Data Sources: - TidyTuesday 2025 Week 03: [The History of Himalayan Mountaineering Expeditions](https://github.com/rfordatascience/tidytuesday/tree/main/data/2025/2025-01-21) :::