Regional evolution of extreme weather attribution science

How different regions developed attribution research over time (2010–2024)

TidyTuesday
2025
Regional analysis of extreme weather attribution science development (2010-2024) reveals distinct patterns in research volume and rapid attribution methodology adoption across global regions. Using normalized comparisons of TidyTuesday data, the visualization shows how some regions emerged as early adopters while others maintained traditional approaches.
Author

Steven Ponce

Published

August 12, 2025

Figure 1: A faceted line chart illustrating the regional evolution of extreme weather attribution science from 2010 to 2024 across eight regions. Each panel displays two metrics: study volume (green solid/dashed lines) normalized within each region, and rapid attribution adoption rates (orange dashed lines). Europe leads with 163 studies, followed by Eastern/South-Eastern Asia (161) and North America (135). The chart reveals distinct regional patterns: some regions, such as North America, exhibit early and rapid adoption peaks around 2018-2020, while others, like Eastern Asia, display steady volume growth with late-emerging rapid adoption. Background shading indicates three development phases: Emergence (2010-2013), Growth (2014-2018), and Maturation (2019-2024). Thin lines represent annual data, while thick lines show 3-year moving averages that exclude partial years.)

Steps to Create this Graphic

1. Load Packages & Setup

Show code
```{r}
#| label: load
#| warning: false
#| message: false
#| results: "hide"

## 1. LOAD PACKAGES & SETUP ----
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
if (!require("pacman")) install.packages("pacman")
pacman::p_load(
        tidyverse,  # Easily Install and Load the 'Tidyverse'
    tidyverse,   # Easily Install and Load the 'Tidyverse'
    ggtext,      # Improved Text Rendering Support for 'ggplot2'
    showtext,    # Using Fonts More Easily in R Graphs
    janitor,     # Simple Tools for Examining and Cleaning Dirty Data
    scales,      # Scale Functions for Visualization
    glue,        # Interpreted String Literals
    zoo          # S3 Infrastructure for Regular and Irregular Time Series
  )})

### |- figure size ----
camcorder::gg_record(
  dir    = here::here("temp_plots"),
  device = "png",
  width  = 12,
  height = 8,
  units  = "in",
  dpi    = 320
)

# Source utility functions
suppressMessages(source(here::here("R/utils/fonts.R")))
source(here::here("R/utils/social_icons.R"))
source(here::here("R/utils/image_utils.R"))
source(here::here("R/themes/base_theme.R"))
```

2. Read in the Data

Show code
```{r}
#| label: read
#| include: true
#| eval: true
#| warning: false

tt <- tidytuesdayR::tt_load(2025, week = 32)

attribution_studies <- tt$attribution_studies |> clean_names()

tidytuesdayR::readme(tt)
rm(tt)
```

3. Examine the Data

Show code
```{r}
#| label: examine
#| include: true
#| eval: true
#| results: 'hide'
#| warning: false

glimpse(attribution_studies)
```

4. Tidy Data

Show code
```{r}
#| label: tidy
#| warning: false

attribution_clean <- attribution_studies |>
  clean_names() |>
  mutate(publication_year = as.integer(publication_year)) |>
  mutate(
    cb_region = str_to_title(cb_region),
    cb_region = case_when(
      cb_region == "Usa" ~ "USA",
      cb_region == "Northern Hemisphere" ~ "Northern Hemisphere",
      TRUE ~ cb_region
    ),
    rapid_study = factor(rapid_study, levels = c("Yes", "No"))
  )

# how many ending years to treat as potentially partial
PARTIAL_YEARS <- 1

regional_evolution_data <- attribution_clean |>
  filter(!is.na(publication_year), !is.na(cb_region), publication_year >= 2010) |>
  group_by(cb_region) |>
  mutate(region_total_studies = n()) |>
  ungroup() |>
  filter(region_total_studies >= 30) |>
  # Annual counts by region/year/rapid
  count(cb_region, publication_year, rapid_study, name = "studies") |>
  # Complete years ONLY within each region up to its own last observed year
  group_by(cb_region, rapid_study) |>
  complete(
    publication_year = seq(min(publication_year, na.rm = TRUE),
      max(publication_year, na.rm = TRUE),
      by = 1
    ),
    fill = list(studies = 0)
  ) |>
  ungroup() |>
  # yearly totals & rapid adoption
  group_by(cb_region, publication_year) |>
  summarise(
    total_studies = sum(studies),
    rapid_studies = sum(studies[rapid_study == "Yes"], na.rm = TRUE),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) |>
  mutate(rapid_adoption_rate = rapid_studies / pmax(total_studies, 1)) |>
  # Normalize + Smoothing (centered, but exclude partial-year leakage)
  group_by(cb_region) |>
  mutate(
    total_normalized = if (max(total_studies) > min(total_studies)) {
      (total_studies - min(total_studies)) / (max(total_studies) - min(total_studies))
    } else {
      0.5
    },
    # region-wise bounds
    min_y = min(publication_year),
    max_y = max(publication_year),
    # last year to be treated as "complete" for smoothing windows
    last_complete_y = max_y - PARTIAL_YEARS
  ) |>
  arrange(cb_region, publication_year) |>
  # compute centered rollmean across full series
  mutate(
    total_smooth_tmp = zoo::rollmean(total_normalized, k = 3, fill = NA, align = "center"),
    rapid_smooth_tmp = zoo::rollmean(rapid_adoption_rate, k = 3, fill = NA, align = "center")
  ) |>
  # Mask smoothed values whose 3-yr window would include partial years
  mutate(
    valid_center = publication_year >= (min_y + 1) & publication_year <= (last_complete_y - 1),
    total_smooth = ifelse(valid_center, total_smooth_tmp, NA_real_),
    rapid_smooth = ifelse(valid_center, rapid_smooth_tmp, NA_real_)
  ) |>
  # context metrics & labels
  mutate(
    total_regional_studies = sum(total_studies),
    avg_rapid_adoption = mean(rapid_adoption_rate, na.rm = TRUE),
    research_start_year = min(publication_year[total_studies > 0]),
    development_pattern = case_when(
      avg_rapid_adoption > 0.30 ~ "Early Adopter",
      avg_rapid_adoption > 0.15 ~ "Moderate Adopter",
      TRUE ~ "Traditional"
    )
  ) |>
  ungroup() |>
  # field development phases (for backdrop)
  mutate(
    development_phase = case_when(
      publication_year <= 2013 ~ "Emergence",
      publication_year <= 2018 ~ "Growth",
      TRUE ~ "Maturation"
    ),
    phase_color = case_when(
      development_phase == "Emergence" ~ "#f0f0f0",
      development_phase == "Growth" ~ "#f5f5f5",
      TRUE ~ "#fafafa"
    ),
    facet_order_metric = total_regional_studies * (2024 - research_start_year),
    region_label = paste0(cb_region, "\n(", total_regional_studies, " studies)")
  ) |>
  arrange(development_pattern, desc(total_regional_studies)) |>
  ungroup()
```

5. Visualization Parameters

Show code
```{r}
#| label: params
#| include: true
#| warning: false

### |-  plot aesthetics ----
colors <- get_theme_colors(
    palette = c(
      "Study Volume" = "#2E8B57", 
      "Rapid Adoption" = "#FF8C00" 
    )
)

### |- titles and caption ----
title_text <- str_glue("Regional evolution of extreme weather attribution science")

subtitle_text <- str_glue(
    "How different regions developed attribution research over time (2010–2024)\n",
    "Study volume normalized within each region for fair comparison\n",
    "Thin lines = annual data • Thick lines = centered 3-year MA (excludes partial years)"
)

caption_text <- create_social_caption(
    tt_year = 2025,
    tt_week = 32,
    source_text =  "Our World in Data"
)

### |-  fonts ----
setup_fonts()
fonts <- get_font_families()

### |-  plot theme ----
# Start with base theme
base_theme <- create_base_theme(colors)

# Add weekly-specific theme elements
weekly_theme <- extend_weekly_theme(
    base_theme,
    theme(
        # Text styling
        plot.title = element_text(face = "bold", family = fonts$title, size = rel(1.2), color  = colors$title, margin = margin(b = 10)),
        plot.subtitle = element_text(family = fonts$subtitle, lineheight = 1.2, color = colors$subtitle, size = rel(0.78), margin = margin(b = 20)),
        
        # Axis elements
        axis.line = element_blank(), 
        axis.ticks = element_blank(), 
        
        # Grid elements
        panel.grid.major = element_line(color = "gray90",linetype = "solid", linewidth = 0.3),
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank(), 
   
        # Axis elements
        axis.text = element_text(color = colors$text, size = rel(0.7)),
        axis.title.x = element_text(color = colors$text, face = "bold", size = rel(0.8), margin = margin(t = 15)),
        axis.title.y = element_text(color = colors$text, face = "bold", size = rel(0.8), margin = margin(r = 10)),
        
        # Legend elements
        legend.position = "top",
        legend.title = element_text(family = fonts$tsubtitle, color = colors$text, size = rel(0.8), face = "bold"),
        legend.text = element_text(family = fonts$tsubtitle, color = colors$text, size = rel(0.7)),
        legend.margin = margin(t = 15),
        
        # Plot margin
        plot.margin = margin(t = 15, r = 15, b = 15, l = 15),
    )
)

# Set theme
theme_set(weekly_theme)
```

6. Plot

Show code
```{r}
#| label: plot
#| warning: false

### |-  final plot ----
p <- ggplot(regional_evolution_data, aes(x = publication_year)) +
  # Annotate (bkg phases)
  annotate("rect",
    xmin = 2010, xmax = 2013.5, ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
    fill = "#f0f0f0", alpha = 0.6
  ) +
  annotate("rect",
    xmin = 2013.5, xmax = 2018.5, ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
    fill = "#f8f8f8", alpha = 0.6
  ) +
  annotate("rect",
    xmin = 2018.5, xmax = 2024, ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
    fill = "#fdfdfd", alpha = 0.6
  ) +
  # Geoms
  geom_line(aes(y = total_normalized, color = "Study Volume", linetype = "Study Volume"),
    alpha = 0.4, linewidth = 0.7
  ) +
  geom_line(aes(y = rapid_adoption_rate, color = "Rapid Adoption", linetype = "Rapid Adoption"),
    alpha = 0.4, linewidth = 0.7
  ) +
  geom_line(aes(y = total_smooth, color = "Study Volume", linetype = "Study Volume"),
    linewidth = 2, na.rm = TRUE
  ) +
  geom_line(aes(y = rapid_smooth, color = "Rapid Adoption", linetype = "Rapid Adoption"),
    linewidth = 2, na.rm = TRUE
  ) +
  # Annotate (phase labels)
  annotate("text",
    x = 2011.75, y = 0.95, label = "Emergence",
    size = 3, alpha = 0.5, fontface = "italic"
  ) +
  annotate("text",
    x = 2016, y = 0.95, label = "Growth",
    size = 3, alpha = 0.5, fontface = "italic"
  ) +
  annotate("text",
    x = 2021, y = 0.95, label = "Maturation",
    size = 3, alpha = 0.5, fontface = "italic"
  ) +
  # Scales
  scale_color_manual(
    values = colors$palette,
    name = "Metric (Normalized)",
    labels = c(
      "Rapid Adoption" = "Rapid Adoption Rate",
      "Study Volume" = "Study Volume (Normalized)"
    )
  ) +
  scale_linetype_manual(
    values = c("Study Volume" = "solid", "Rapid Adoption" = "22"),
    name = "Metric (Normalized)",
    labels = c(
      "Rapid Adoption" = "Rapid Adoption Rate",
      "Study Volume" = "Study Volume (Normalized)"
    )
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    labels = percent_format(),
    limits = c(0, 1), breaks = seq(0, 1, 0.25)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(2010, 2024, 4)) +
  # Labs
  labs(
    title = title_text,
    subtitle = subtitle_text,
    x = "Publication Year",
    y = "Normalized Scale (0–100%)",
    caption = paste0(
      "Background shading shows field development phases • ",
      "Facets ordered by research maturity & volume • ",
      "Numbers in region labels = total studies<br><br>",
      caption_text
    )
  ) +
  # Facets
  facet_wrap(~ fct_reorder(region_label, facet_order_metric, .desc = TRUE),
    ncol = 4, scales = "free_x"
  ) +
  # Theme
  theme(
    plot.title = element_text(
      size = rel(1.65),
      family = fonts$title,
      face = "bold",
      color = colors$title,
      lineheight = 1.1,
      margin = margin(t = 5, b = 10)
    ),
    plot.subtitle = element_text(
      size = rel(0.85),
      family = fonts$subtitle,
      color = alpha(colors$subtitle, 0.9),
      lineheight = 1.2,
      margin = margin(t = 0, b = 10)
    ),
    plot.caption = element_markdown(
      size = rel(0.55),
      family = fonts$caption,
      color = colors$caption,
      hjust = 1,
      margin = margin(t = 10)
    ),
    strip.text = element_text(size = rel(0.70), face = "bold", margin = margin(b = 10)),
    panel.spacing.x = unit(1.5, "cm"),
    panel.spacing.y = unit(1.2, "cm"),
  )
```

7. Save

Show code
```{r}
#| label: save
#| warning: false

### |-  plot image ----  
save_plot(
  plot = p, 
  type = "tidytuesday", 
  year = 2025, 
  week = 32, 
  width  = 12,
  height = 8
  )
```

8. Session Info

R version 4.4.1 (2024-06-14 ucrt)
Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64
Running under: Windows 11 x64 (build 22631)

Matrix products: default


locale:
[1] LC_COLLATE=English_United States.utf8 
[2] LC_CTYPE=English_United States.utf8   
[3] LC_MONETARY=English_United States.utf8
[4] LC_NUMERIC=C                          
[5] LC_TIME=English_United States.utf8    

time zone: America/New_York
tzcode source: internal

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices datasets  utils     methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] here_1.0.1      zoo_1.8-12      glue_1.8.0      scales_1.3.0   
 [5] janitor_2.2.0   showtext_0.9-7  showtextdb_3.0  sysfonts_0.8.9 
 [9] ggtext_0.1.2    lubridate_1.9.3 forcats_1.0.0   stringr_1.5.1  
[13] dplyr_1.1.4     purrr_1.0.2     readr_2.1.5     tidyr_1.3.1    
[17] tibble_3.2.1    ggplot2_3.5.1   tidyverse_2.0.0 pacman_0.5.1   

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] gtable_0.3.6       httr2_1.0.6        xfun_0.49          htmlwidgets_1.6.4 
 [5] gh_1.4.1           lattice_0.22-6     tzdb_0.5.0         vctrs_0.6.5       
 [9] tools_4.4.0        generics_0.1.3     parallel_4.4.0     curl_6.0.0        
[13] gifski_1.32.0-1    fansi_1.0.6        pkgconfig_2.0.3    lifecycle_1.0.4   
[17] farver_2.1.2       compiler_4.4.0     textshaping_0.4.0  munsell_0.5.1     
[21] codetools_0.2-20   snakecase_0.11.1   htmltools_0.5.8.1  yaml_2.3.10       
[25] crayon_1.5.3       pillar_1.9.0       camcorder_0.1.0    magick_2.8.5      
[29] commonmark_1.9.2   tidyselect_1.2.1   digest_0.6.37      stringi_1.8.4     
[33] rsvg_2.6.1         rprojroot_2.0.4    fastmap_1.2.0      grid_4.4.0        
[37] colorspace_2.1-1   cli_3.6.4          magrittr_2.0.3     utf8_1.2.4        
[41] withr_3.0.2        rappdirs_0.3.3     bit64_4.5.2        timechange_0.3.0  
[45] rmarkdown_2.29     tidytuesdayR_1.1.2 gitcreds_0.1.2     bit_4.5.0         
[49] ragg_1.3.3         hms_1.1.3          evaluate_1.0.1     knitr_1.49        
[53] markdown_1.13      rlang_1.1.6        gridtext_0.1.5     Rcpp_1.0.13-1     
[57] xml2_1.3.6         renv_1.0.3         vroom_1.6.5        svglite_2.1.3     
[61] rstudioapi_0.17.1  jsonlite_1.8.9     R6_2.5.1           systemfonts_1.1.0

9. GitHub Repository

The complete code for this analysis is available in tt_2025_32.qmd.

For the full repository, click here.

10. References

  1. Data Sources:
  • TidyTuesday 2025 Week 32: [Extreme Weather Attribution Studies](https://github.com/rfordatascience/tidytuesday/blob/main/data/2025/2025-08-12)
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